Obamacare Triggers Jump in U.S. Consumersf Health-Care Spending
By Jeanna Smialek - Apr
19, 2014 - Bloomberg
Nancy Beigel has known since September that she would need hernia surgery.
She couldnft afford it on her $11,000 yearly income until she became eligible
for Medicaid in January through President Barack Obamafs signature health care law.
The law is prompting Beigel and others to spend more at the doctorfs office
and pharmacy. Consumer spending climbed by $20.4 billion at an annualized rate
adjusted for inflation in February, and $13 billion of the increase came from
outlays on health services spurred by the Patient Protection and Affordable Care
Act of 2010, according to Commerce Department data.
The Urban Institute in Washington estimated this month that about 5.4 million
people have gained insurance since January. That could be unleashing pent-up
demand for medical procedures that are boosting out-of-pocket household spending
on co-payments and prescriptions. Those who enrolled in more comprehensive
insurance to meet Obamacare requirements may also be spending on newly-covered
services.
Related:
gThere will be a one-time bump in health spending,h said Larry Levitt, a
senior vice president at the Kaiser Family Foundation in Menlo Park, California, a nonprofit group focused on health care.
gTherefs some new money coming into the system from the government, and we may
also see people shifting money away from other goods into health care as they
get better access to services.h
Budget Share
While itfs been rising fairly steadily since 2000, the share of consumer
budgets dedicated to medical care climbed to a record 17.1 percent in
February from 16.9 percent in December. Since the end of the recession in June
2009 through September, the proportion ranged from 16.4 percent to 16.7 percent.
Beigel, who Bloomberg found through Maryfs Center, a Washington-based group
that assisted people trying to sign up on the exchanges, had surgery Jan. 30,
spent six days in the hospital and bought antibiotics to counter an infection,
all funded by the government program.
The Individual Mandate: Obamacare's Unpopular, Pivotal
Point
Before Jan. 1, childless adults such as Beigel couldnft qualify for Medicaid
in most states, regardless of their income level. Eligibility for childless
adults has increased in 26 states, including Maryland, as a result of the ACA, according to the Kaiser
Family Foundation.
gIfm hoping eventually to get well enough to look for other jobs,h said
Beigel, who lives in Beltsville, Maryland, and has a small janitorial business.
She has poor circulation in one foot and a bad knee.
Boosting Incomes
Spending isnft the only thing being affected by Obamacare. About $11.4
billion of the $47.7 billion increase in February personal income at an annualized rate
came from government transfer payments linked to the expanded Medicaid benefits
under ACA, Commerce Department data show. In January, those transfers jumped by
$19.3 billion, helping offset a $16.7 billion reduction caused by the expiration
of emergency long-term unemployment benefits.
The Commerce Departmentfs data are still preliminary. The figures are based
on estimates until more comprehensive information
becomes available in June with the release of the first-quarter survey on
services. That makes the latest figures susceptible to revisions.
The share of uninsured adults 18 years old and older has declined 2.5
percentage points in the 21 states and Washington that have chosen to expand
Medicaid and set up their own exchanges in the health insurance marketplace, a
Gallup report yesterday showed. There has been
a 0.8 point drop in the 29 states taking neither or one of the actions.
Changing Mix
gYou would expect that toward the beginning of the year there would be a
pickup in health spending,h said Guy Berger, a U.S. economist at RBS Securities
Inc. in Stamford, Connecticut. gSpending a little more on health-care services
might mean, at least in the short run, spending a little less on other stuff.h
In the longer run, Obamacare cost-control provisions, including curbs on
Medicare, could keep a lid on expenses, according to Kaiserfs Levitt, thus
tempering spending. Health-care service costs rose 0.8 percent in February from
a year earlier, compared with an average 2.6 percent pace in the prior 10 years.
Because much of the recent pickup in health spending is probably paid by
insurance, itfs unlikely to divert consumer dollars away from other items, said
Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington,
a Washington-based group funded by labor unions and private foundations. Such
outlays, even if funded by insurance and government programs, count
as consumption in Commerce data.
Spending Impact
gIf the insurer is picking up the tab, I donft know that most people would
even perceiveh the need to reduce other expenses, Baker said.
Some consumers may face higher costs as theyfre required to buy insurance or
pay a fine, or as workers are asked to contribute more toward their
employer-provided health plans, leaving less cash on hand for other purchases.
Economists and money managers say the effects could be felt from Walgreen Co.
pharmacies to Wal-Mart Stores Inc.fs aisles.
Spending on health care began jumping in last yearfs fourth quarter as
consumers rushed to beat projected increases in copays and premiums, said Chris
Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York. Household outlays for medical
services increased 4.1 percent from October through February, the
biggest five-month gain since July 1992, according to Commerce Department data.
Rising Costs
About 59 percent of employees say Obamacare could increase insurance costs,
according to a PwC U.S. survey of 2,100 employed adults released April
8. About one-third of 700 companies have increased deductibles or other
cost-sharing, and 48 percent are considering similar moves, according to a
survey by New York-based consulting firm Mercer LLC.
gThe effect on consumption is already so substantial, we ignore it at our own
peril,h Low wrote in a March 28 note to clients.
Sales could slow at stores such as Wal-Mart and Target Corp., Low said, as
middle-income households spend more on copays and deductibles. Low-earners will
be less affected as they benefit from Medicaid expansion and tax credits, he
said.
Purchases at drug and personal-care stores climbed 4.4 percent in the first
three months of 2014 compared with the same period last year, the third-best
after auto dealers and online merchants among 13 categories tracked, according
to the Commerce Departmentfs retail sales data. General-merchandise stores such
as Wal-Mart have seen a 0.4 percent increase, while clothing outlets showed a
1.1 percent gain.
Long-Term Impact
Retailers could see effects mounting through 2016 as more people enroll in
insurance and more companies ask employees to shoulder higher costs, said Lance
Roberts, a partner at STA Wealth Management in Houston.
gWhen you have an increase in costs, combined with a lack of wage increases,
the consumer has to make decisions about where they spend their money,h Roberts
said. gLess money to spend means less money for retail.h
In the initial enrollment period, about 8 million applicants sought insurance
on Obamacare exchanges, which allow consumers to compare and choose plans, the
Obama administration announced on April 17. The number updated the figure of 7.5
million enrollees released just after the open enrollment period ended.
gWhile some of the new benefits will simply finance spending that consumers
were previously financing out-of-pocket, it seems likely that a much larger
share of benefit spending will show up as increased health consumption,h Goldman
Sachs Group Inc. economist Alec Phillips wrote in an April 1 note to clients.
Drug Stores
Walgreen, a Deerfield, Illinois-based pharmacy and retail chain, is counting
on the boost.
gAs enrollment grows, itfs going to be positive for the business,h Gregory D.
Wasson, chief executive officer, said in a March 25 earnings call. gThere are
some positive signs over the last month or so that more and more people are
getting coverage.h
Kaiserfs Levitt said rapid growth in health-service spending will probably
last through May. Similar bumps could occur next year and in 2016, following the
next enrollment periods, though those will be short-lived amid shorter signup
windows.
There will be gat least a three-year transition period where wefre ramping up
enrollment and health spending,h he said. Still, retailers may not notice a
shift in spending toward health as the improving economy lifts broader demand,
he said. gThe changes are real, but they may not be big.h
To contact the reporter on this story: Jeanna Smialek in Washington at jsmialek1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Carlos Torres at ctorres2@bloomberg.net
Chris Wellisz